A multi-period dataset of retrogressive thaw slump susceptibility for Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions

Summary

Permafrost thaw accelerates the initiation and expansion of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), with critical implications for the terrestrial carbon cycle and land-surface energy budgets. However, long-term datasets characterizing spatiotemporal variations in RTS susceptibility across Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions remain lacking. Here, we integrate 55,673 georeferenced RTS occurrence records with machine learning models to generate a 1-km spatiotemporal dataset of RTS susceptibility from 2000 to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. RTS susceptibility is defined as the relative occurrence probability of RTS under specified environmental conditions. We independently modelled RTS susceptibility for the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau and merged the individual outputs to construct a spatially harmonized dataset for the Northern Hemisphere. Model performance was evaluated using standard classification metrics, yielding mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.96 ± 0.005. The dataset includes georeferenced RTS inventories and gridded susceptibility maps for the entire Northern Hemisphere permafrost domain, covering the baseline period and diverse future climate scenarios. These products provide a foundational resource for quantifying permafrost hazard risks, infrastructure exposure, and carbon-climate feedbacks under climate warming.